RESUMO
Pilocarpus microphyllus Stapf. ex Wardlew. (Rutaceae) is an endemic and threatened medicinal plant species from tropical Brazil. Popularly known as "jaborandi", it is the unique natural source of pilocarpine, an alkaloid used to medical treat glaucoma and xerostomia. Based on Species Distribution Models (SDMs), we modeled the suitability of P. microphyllus's geographical distribution considering three Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under two future climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The quantitative analyses carried out using ten different SDM algorithms revealed that precipitation seasonality (Bio15) and precipitation of the driest month (Bio14) were the most important bioclimatic variables. The results evidenced four main key areas of continuous occurrence of the plant spreading diagonally over tropical Brazilian biomes (Amazon, Cerrado and Caatinga). The near-future (2020 to 2040) ensemble projections considering all GCMs and scenarios have indicated negative impacts for the potential loss or significant reduction in suitable habitats for P. microphyllus in the transition region between the Amazon and Cerrado into central and northern Maranhão state, and mainly in the Caatinga biome over the northern Piaui state. On the other hand, positive impacts of the expansion of the plant habitat suitability are projected over forest cover protected areas of the Amazon biome in the southeastern Pará state. Since the jaborandi is of socioeconomic importance for many families in the north/northeast Brazil, it is urgent to implement public policies for conservation and sustainable management, thus mitigating the impacts of global climate change.
RESUMO
Long-term human-induced impacts have significantly changed the Amazonian landscape. The most dramatic land cover and land use (LCLU) changes began in the early 1970s with the establishment of the Trans-Amazon Highway and large government projects associated with the expansion of agricultural settlement and cattle ranching, which cleared significant tropical forest cover in the areas of new and accelerated human development. Taking the changes in the LCLU over the past four decades as a basis, this study aims to determine the consequences of land cover (forest and savanna) and land use (pasturelands, mining and urban) changes on the hydroclimatology of the Itacaiúnas River watershed area of the located in the southeastern Amazon region. We analyzed a multi-decadal Landsat dataset from 1973, 1984, 1994, 2004 and 2013 and a 40-yr time series of water discharge from the Itacaiúnas River, as well as air temperature and relative humidity data over this drainage area for the same period. We employed standard Landsat image processing techniques in conjunction with a geographic object-based image analysis and multi-resolution classification approach. With the goal of detecting possible long-term trends, non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was applied, based on a Sen slope estimator on a 40-yr annual PREC, TMED and RH time series, considering the spatial average of the entire watershed. In the 1970s, the region was entirely covered by forest (99%) and savanna (â¼0.3%). Four decades later, only â¼48% of the tropical forest remains, while pasturelands occupy approximately 50% of the watershed area. Moreover, in protected areas, nearly 97% of the tropical forest remains conserved, while the forest cover of non-protected areas is quite fragmented and, consequently, unevenly distributed, covering an area of only 30%. Based on observational data analysis, there is evidence that the conversion of forest cover to extensive and homogeneous pasturelands was accompanied by systematic modifications to the hydroclimatology cycle of the Itacaiúnas watershed, thus highlighting drier environmental conditions due to a rise in the region's air temperature, a decrease in the relative humidity, and an increase in river discharge.
